A fast-growing economy may be high on President Donald Trump‘s to-do list, but Cresset Wealth Advisors’ Jack Ablin doesn’t see it boding well for the market.
Ablin, the firm’s chief investment officer, is worried the economy could soon overheat and drag stocks down by 10 to 15 percent from current levels.
Although they’re “noble,” Ablin says, the recently passed stimulus package and Trump’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan could conceivably push economic growth over the edge.
“Trump and company are beating this 2 percent donkey into a 3 percent racehorse, and it’s not going to last forever. It’ll eventually start to absorb a lot of spare capacity, result in some inflation, and then start to turn the business cycle over sooner,” he said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Futures Now.”
Ablin’s comments came as the stock market failed to continue clawing its way back into the green from the February correction. The Dow and S&P 500 broke a six-day win streak and closed below their 50-day moving average.
“The problem is that it’s not fast enough for a lot of policymakers, and so what that means is now we’re going to grow above potential,” Ablin added. “That has the potential of raising interest rates, sucking a lot of that air out from under the premium that we have in the equity market.”
Right now, the 10-Year Treasury yield is still trading within a fraction of 3 percent — a level Wall Street is watching very closely. If that rate jumps to 4 percent, Ablin predicts stocks will run into trouble because investors will see bonds as a safer bet.
“Since 2009, the bond market has been in this tug of war with the stock market with one arm tied behind its back,” Ablin said. “As these central banks pull back from this pedal-to-the-metal policy, eventually bonds are going to be able to offer a fair fight against equities.”