Tuesday, January 11, 2022
President Joe Biden would lose an election rematch to former President Donald Trump, who would win among independents and almost evenly split Hispanic voters.
A new Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, just 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 46% would vote for Trump. Another 10% would choose some other candidate in a Biden-Trump rematch. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump would get 81% support from GOP voters and Biden would get 75% of Democrats if the election were held today. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, Trump would win by a 16-point margin, with 45% to Biden’s 29% of the vote.
The survey found that a majority (52%) have an unfavorable impression of Biden, including 42% who have a Very Unfavorable view of the president. Forty-six percent (46%) view Biden favorably, including 28% who have a Very Favorable impression of him. By comparison, 51% of voters view Trump favorably, including 31% who have a Very Favorable impression of the former president.
“Less than one year into his presidency, 52 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable impression of President Joe Biden. This is astounding, given the fact that the mainstream has given Biden the benefit of the doubt so often and glossed over his administration’s utter failures concerning the pandemic, inflation, foreign policy, et cetera” said Chris Talgo, senior editor and research fellow at The Heartland Institute. “On the other hand, 51 percent of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of former President Trump. In fact, more likely voters would vote for Trump over Biden if the next presidential election were held today. It seems like American voters are experiencing a classic case of voter’s remorse.”
The survey of 1,016 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 5, 2022 by the Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
If the election were held today, Trump would win 51% of white voters to 36% for Biden. Among black voters, Biden would get 61% to 26% for Trump. Hispanic voters would split almost evenly, with 41% for Biden and 38% for Trump. Among other minority voters, Trump would get 47% to Biden’s 28%.
More women voters (47%) than men (43%) have a favorable impression of Biden, while men (54%) are more likely than women voters (48%) to have a favorable impression of Trump. In an election rematch, women voters would split evenly – 43% each for Biden and Trump – while men would choose Trump by a 14-point margin, 50%-36% over Biden.
While a majority (53%) of voters under 40 have a favorable impression of Biden, a larger majority (57%) of older voters view Biden unfavorably. Most older voters have a favorable view of Trump, but only 42% of voters under 40 view the former president favorably. In a rematch, Trump would win a majority of voters 40 and older, while those under 40 would split 42% for Biden and 34% for Trump with another 15% choosing some other candidate.
Trump gets his strongest level of support from married voters with children at home, while Biden’s highest support is among the unmarried and childless.
If the election were held today, Trump would beat Biden by an 11-point margin among voters without a college education, while college-educated voters would split 45% for Trump and 42% for Biden.
Voter confidence in President Biden’s ability to do the job remains low and most don’t expect a second term for the oldest president in U.S. history.
President Biden is doing a poor job on both national security and economic issues, according to a majority of voters.
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