Amid predictions of a Trump vs Biden rematch in 2024, polls suggest voters want neither, but a new face with a focused agenda to repair the economy, the job market and control rising prices of groceries and gas, and eventually the 40-year-high inflation ahead of the winter.
Odds seem stacked against the Democrats in the upcoming Nov mid-term polls, with President Joe Biden, First Lady Jill Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ ratings plummeting by the day and Donald Trump with a wafer-thin edge over the incumbent President.
The battle of the ballot is going to be over the Biden administration’s efforts to rejuvenate the economy and rid it of inflation, fears of recession, control soaring house rentals, properties, grocery prices, shortage of raw materials, scarcity of baby food formulas vs Trump’s ability to survive the tearing pieces of evidence of his alleged collaboration in assembling and inciting a riotous mob at the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 to not to certify Biden’s election.
However, how much of this is going to weigh in with the voters in midterms and in the primaries with the party members and funders for both the ex and incumbent is the big question.
Most Democrats want someone other than Biden to run for president in 2024 – but he could still beat Trump, says CNBC quoting a poll. Only 26 per cent of Democrats said they would prefer him to be their party’s candidate in the 2024 election, and 64 per cent want someone else, a new poll survey has found. Biden’s age (82 in November this year) and job performance were the top reasons cited by Democrats on why they wanted a candidate other than Biden to be the party nominee, The New York Times/Siena College poll found.
Just 13 per cent of voters of all kinds say the US is “on the right track”, while 77 per cent said it was “headed in the wrong direction”. However, Biden would likely defeat Trump again if the election were held now, the survey suggested, with 44 per cent of voters selecting him, compared to 41 per cent for Trump.
While that finding is potentially very bad news for Biden’s reelection hopes, the poll has even worse news when it comes to younger Democratic voters and for how all voters see the country’s direction. A whopping 94 per cent of Democrats who are less than 30 years old said they want someone besides Biden, the survey found.
A Gallup poll last week that found that just 33 per cent of respondents believe Biden deserves to be reelected, while 67 per cent said he does not deserve a second term. That is 4 percentage points lower than the level of support for reelection Trump saw in an April 2018 poll, which came more than two years before he faced Biden.
In the Times/Siena poll, the top problems that voters believe are facing the US were the economy, which 20 per cent of respondents identified as the most important problem, followed by “inflation and the cost of living”, which 15 per cent identified. Eleven per cent of respondents identified “the state of democracy” or “political division” as their top concern, while 10 per cent said gun policies were the most important problem.
Abortion and women’s rights were cited as the top concern for 5 per cent of respondents. The Supreme Court in a major ruling on June 24 said there is no federal right to abortion, reversing a nearly half-century-old opinion that it issued in the Roe v. Wade case. The decision is expected to ultimately result in abortion being banned or more severely restricted than it previously was in nearly half of the US states.
UK’s The Guardian says on the Republican side of the ledger, “Someone else” (than Trump) also led, with 38.1 per cent of the vote.
Florida Governor Rino DeSantis has attracted 23.4 per cent support and Mike Pence, Trump’s Vice President, received 20.5 per cent.
Also attracting support were the former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, and Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton.
Fox News says that Americans are already looking forward to 2024, and the majority of voters revealed they do not want either Biden or Trump to run for President, and so does a recent Suffolk University/USA Today.
Roughly 68 per cent of voters said they do not want Biden to run again and 65 per cent do not want to see Trump make another run for the White House. Asked who in the Democratic Party voters would rather see run for President in 2024, Harris and Senator Bernie Sanders, tied for first place, with nearly 18 per cent support for each. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg received 16 per cent.
Among the other rumoured 2024 contenders, Senator Amy Klobuchar received 11 per cent, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clocked in at 10 per cent, and California Governor Gavin Newsom garnered just 8 per cent.
DeSantis appears to be Trump’s toughest competition in 2024. But reports also suggest that Trump has been unbeatable head-to-head in any of the earlier bids at his presidency and 3rd bid will not buck the trend.
Trump received the most support with 43 per cent choosing him as their 2024 pick. DeSantis came in second place with 34 per cent support. While 8 per cent still remain undecided, 7 per cent said Pence would be their choice. Representative Liz Cheney, who is a member of the Jan 6 Committee, Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie all received under 3 per cent of the vote.
Biden, who sees himself as the Democrat with the best chance of beating Trump, is suffering from anaemic approval ratings. Yet one top Democratic donor said the poll showing Biden beating Trump, who could announce a new run for the White House any day, is giving the President “some life at a time when he really needs it”.
Biden ran in the 2020 contest to end Trump’s presidency, saying no other Democrat could take him on and win after the Republican’s shocking win over Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden, Barack Obama’s Vice President for the previous eight years, didn’t run in 2016. Given Biden’s political problems, the 2024 scenario is setting itself up as quite the conundrum for Democrats.
“Trump is like a steroid boost for Democrats,” said Jim Kessler, Executive Vice President for policy at the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way.
He acknowledged that the November midterms are likely to be difficult for Democrats but said that a Trump reelection announcement could help boost turnout among the base.
(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
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First Published: Sun, July 31 2022. 23:58 IST