It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC) share price down 15% in the last month. But that doesn’t change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. We think most investors would be happy with the 137% return, over that period. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price. Unfortunately not all shareholders will have held it for the long term, so spare a thought for those caught in the 64% decline over the last twelve months.
Now it’s worth having a look at the company’s fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Alcidion Group isn’t currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
For the last half decade, Alcidion Group can boast revenue growth at a rate of 38% per year. That’s well above most pre-profit companies. So it’s not entirely surprising that the share price reflected this performance by increasing at a rate of 19% per year, in that time. This suggests the market has well and truly recognized the progress the business has made. To our minds that makes Alcidion Group worth investigating – it may have its best days ahead.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on Alcidion Group’s balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there’s a difference between Alcidion Group’s total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we’ve covered above. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. We note that Alcidion Group’s TSR, at 142% is higher than its share price return of 137%. When you consider it hasn’t been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 4.7% in the twelve months, Alcidion Group shareholders did even worse, losing 63%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 19% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 1 warning sign with Alcidion Group , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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